Is the Trans Movement a Fad? What New Evidence Reveals

A Culture in Flux: Why Transgender Identification Has Exploded

In recent years, few social phenomena have changed as rapidly or dramatically as the explosion of young people—particularly teenage girls—identifying as transgender or nonbinary. Once a condition thought to affect a tiny, stable portion of the population, gender dysphoria is now a cultural conversation, a movement, and for many families, a deep source of confusion and pain.

A recent Wall Street Journal opinion piece by evolutionary biologist Colin Wright explores this question head-on. His article, “Evidence Backs the Transgender Social Contagion Hypothesis,” challenges the popular claim that rising transgender identification is merely the product of “greater acceptance.” Instead, he argues that what we’re seeing looks far more like a social contagion—a psychological and cultural spread through peer influence, social media, and institutional reinforcement.

What the Article Reveals:

Wright highlights several key points that support the idea of a social contagion effect rather than a biological awakening:

1. Unprecedented Rise Among Adolescent Girls:
   In just a decade, the number of teenage girls identifying as transgender has skyrocketed by more than 1,500% in some Western nations. Historically, gender dysphoria was a rare and predominantly male condition emerging in early childhood—not adolescence.
2. Peer and Online Influence:
   Wright cites the work of Dr. Lisa Littman, who in 2018 coined the term Rapid-Onset Gender Dysphoria (ROGD). Her study found that many adolescents began identifying as transgender after friends did, often within tight social circles or online communities. These findings mirror the pattern of other social contagions—such as eating disorders, self-harm behaviors, or identity trends amplified by social media.
3. Recent Data Suggests a Plateau:
   According to recent survey data, the percentage of young adults identifying as transgender may have already peaked or begun to decline. Such a pattern—rapid rise followed by leveling off—is characteristic of social contagion phenomena, not biological ones.

Wright’s conclusion is stark but measured: while compassion for individuals experiencing gender dysphoria is essential, ignoring the social and psychological dynamics at play is neither scientific nor humane.

Scientific Evidence Behind “Rapid-Onset Gender Dysphoria:

Independent research lends partial support to Wright’s claims.

• Peer Influence and Social Clustering: Studies published in Archives of Sexual Behavior (2023) and PLOS ONE (2022) have confirmed that gender identity exploration among adolescents often clusters within friend groups, and that peer validation significantly predicts persistence of transgender identification.
• The Role of Social Media: Developmental psychologists have documented how platforms like TikTok and Reddit can amplify identity formation, spreading emotionally charged narratives of transition as pathways to belonging and meaning. These dynamics mirror those seen in past “social contagions” such as cutting, anorexia, and “multiple personality disorder” surges in the 1980s–1990s.
• Neurobiological and Longitudinal Uncertainty: Despite claims of an innate “gendered brain,” neuroscientific studies remain inconclusive. Major meta-analyses (e.g., Guillamon et al., Frontiers in Neuroendocrinology, 2016) find no consistent brain pattern distinguishing transgender individuals from their biological sex, especially in youth (Emphasis mine).
• The Desistance Phenomenon: Long-term studies show that between 60–90% of children diagnosed with gender dysphoria eventually desist when allowed to mature without medical intervention. This is consistent with a developmental or psychosocial explanation rather than a fixed biological one.

In short, the scientific consensus is far from settled, but evidence strongly suggests that social and psychological factors play a far greater role than is often acknowledged in media or activism.

It should be noted that this has nothing to do with individual feelings of gender dysphoria that have happened throughout history. The modern research is simply showing the social contagious that has deeply intensified the social phenomenal of social groups embracing this lifestyle.

Finding Our True Identity in God

From a Catholic and Natural Law standpoint, human sexuality is not a matter of personal invention—it is an expression of the Creator’s design. Our bodies are not arbitrary shells but sacramental signs of the soul’s identity. To separate one’s self-concept from the biological reality of male and female is to deny the unity of body and spirit that defines the human person.

This does not mean condemnation or cruelty. On the contrary, the Church insists that every person, regardless of their struggle, must be treated with compassion, love, and dignity. Yet love must be grounded in truth. To affirm a falsehood about human nature—especially in children—is not compassion but confusion.

St. John Paul II wrote in Theology of the Body that the human body “reveals man” and points toward his divine vocation. The body tells the truth of who we are. To reject that truth is to attempt to redefine creation itself, echoing the ancient temptation: “You will be like gods” (Gen 3:5).

From the perspective of Natural Law, gender is not a construct but a biological and teleological reality—ordered toward reproduction, complementarity, and the flourishing of the family. The social contagion hypothesis, therefore, exposes not only a scientific trend but a deeper metaphysical crisis: a society unmoored from the natural order and from the Creator who gives it meaning.

The deeper question: What are we searching for?

Beneath the statistics lies something profoundly human. Many young people today are not seeking rebellion but belonging. They inhabit a digital world that offers instant identity and affirmation—but at the cost of confusion and detachment from reality.

Transgenderism, in this sense, reflects a broader existential hunger: a longing for stability, meaning, and communion in a world that has replaced the sacred with the self.

As Christians, our task is not to scorn but to guide. We must bear witness to a vision of the human person grounded in truth, love, and grace—the truth that we are not our own creations but beloved sons and daughters of God.

Conclusion:

Science and faith converge on this point: identity cannot be sustained by illusion. Whether one approaches from the standpoint of biology, psychology, or theology, the truth remains that we find ourselves only when we receive ourselves.

The transgender social contagion, if it exists, is not merely a medical crisis—it is a symptom of a civilization that has forgotten who man is.

Perhaps the real question isn’t about gender, but about what it means to be human.